Chase battle moves on to Bristol

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/17/2010 - Bristol, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Sprint Cup. Date: Saturday, August 21. Race: IRWIN Tools Night Race. Site: Bristol Motor Speedway. Track: .533-mile oval. Start time: 7:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 500. Miles: 266.5. 2009 winner: Kyle Busch. Television: ABC. Radio: Performance Racing Network (PRN) /SIRIUS NASCAR Radio.

When the Sprint Cup Series comes to Bristol in August, it's always an action- packed affair on a hot summer night. And Saturday's race should be no different, as time is running out for many drivers to qualify for the championship Chase, which begins next month at New Hampshire.

With three races remaining in the regular season, 173 points separate 12th- place Clint Bowyer from 19th-place Juan Pablo Montoya. The top-12 drivers in points after the September 11 race at Richmond will make the Chase.

After winning last Sunday at Michigan, Kevin Harvick, the current points leader, became the first driver to lock down a position in the playoffs.

"Obviously, it's nice to go into this week's race and not have to worry about a Chase spot - better than anything going into Richmond without having to worry about a Chase spot," Harvick said. "The next three weeks are going to be a lot of fun, to go to three racetracks we've won at before and run well this year, to try to get more bonus points and get prepared for the Chase."

Two more drivers -- Jeff Gordon and Denny Hamlin -- could secure a Chase position at Bristol. Despite starting 33rd, Hamlin finished second at Michigan and moved up three spots to third in the standings. He is now 327 points ahead of Bowyer.

"In order to win the Chase [this] year, we were going to have to qualify better," Hamlin said. "Right now, we are just struggling so bad with qualifying. It takes us the entire race to get to the front. That's going to be a tough road to travel if we're going to try to win the championship."

Hamlin and Johnson lead the series with five victories each so far. However, Johnson has not won since the last weekend in June at New Hampshire, and Hamlin hasn't driven into victory lane since two months ago at Michigan.

Johnson is 294 points ahead of Bowyer in the fifth spot. It's a slight possibility that Johnson could secure his Chase spot at Bristol, but the four- time defending series champion most likely will qualify for the playoffs on Labor Day weekend at Atlanta.

In March, Johnson won at Bristol for the first time in 17 starts here. He also claimed his 50th career Cup victory.

"We ran so well there in the spring," Johnson said. "Even last year, we had great spring and fall races. The night race has always been one of my favorites and look forward to being competitive, and hopefully go back to victory lane there."

The best battle in the "Race for the Chase" right now is between Bowyer and 13th-place Mark Martin. The two are in a tight battle for the final Chase eligible spot. They have swapped the 12th and 13th positions in the last two races.

At Michigan, Bowyer finished 13th, while Martin had a disappointing 28th-place run.

"We have three races to go to get it done and, and if we continue to have runs like this, we can race our way into the Chase," Bowyer said.

Martin, who finished second to champion and Hendrick Motorsports teammate Johnson in last year's Chase, trails Bowyer by 35 points.

"I don't know what they are," Martin said of his chances making the 2010 Chase. "We'll keep digging. I don't know. Every race is a new race."

Ryan Newman, who presently holds the 14th spot, is 103 points behind Bowyer, while 15th-place Jamie McMurray trails by 105 points.

Kasey Kahne, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and David Reutimann are 16th through 18th in points, respectively. All three drivers will need strong performances at Bristol if they want to improve their chances of making the Chase. Montoya will have to do the same as well.

This will be the 100th Cup race at Bristol, with the first event running here on July 30, 1961. Jack Smith won the race, despite driving relief from Johnny Allen. The first night race at Bristol was held in August 1978. Darrell Waltrip holds the record for most wins at Bristol with 12, while Gordon and Kurt Busch lead all active drivers with five victories each here. Kurt's younger brother, Kyle, won both races at Bristol during the 2009 season. Kyle finished ninth here earlier this year.

"I look forward to going there always," Busch said. "We struggled there in the spring for some reason. All of [Joe Gibbs Racing] did. We all blew right-front tires out, and we all got into the fence, but we salvaged a decent day."

Kyle Busch, as well as Brad Keselowski and Elliott Sadler, will compete in all three of NASCAR's national touring series races at Bristol this week.

Fifty teams are on the preliminary entry list for the IRWIN Tools Night Race.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.